You can never pick the direction of the market absolutely, but you can use technical analysis coupled with fundamentals to make a high probability determination. In this market, technical analysis and fundamentals won't help, which is why we have remained flat. The Nasdaq trading below its 200 day moving average has been discussed before as being a drag on the market and causing concern for long positions. A confirmed rally should get the Nasdaq above the 200 day M.A.
In fact technically we have a failed rally attempt forming that could easily lead to a short position. We continue to use Treasury Direct to buy 4 week T-Bills to keep some money working, but cash is still king.