As I observe the S&P 500 futures market, I come away impressed how chaotic the markets can be. The last 3 sessions have been hard down days with above average volume. Nothing like being long (break-even 1306), to really appreciate that the market can truly do anything and it never really does the same thing twice. All indicators are in sell, but there is something indicators can't capture and that's the humans that moved the market here. The humans that moved the market here did not sell off 30+ points on the S&P 500 because of method, or fundamentals but fear and herd mentality. Having made this statement, I'm not suggesting the market can't go down another 100 points, but just a 30 point move in 3 days is not normal market action. You can never stick to a losing position and claim your right and the market is wrong, you'll end up dead wrong and broke! Our trade basis suggest that the market is oversold and thus, we want to be long, in fact we plan to add to our position to capitalize on this situation. We also stand ready to close out the position in a orderly fashion if the market dictates.
There is support at 1286.50 that was tested briefly in the overnight before recovering to close up 2.75 points for the session. This session represents the 3rd day in a row of new lows which sliced through all support with little trouble. The beauty of this market is that many market participants are forced to trade out of fear or greed. To the extent that you reduce your own fear and greed, you will profit. Watch our latest trade progress as we use these elements to our advantage. Lastly, time is on the side of the traders that are properly capitalized for their chosen trading method. You never stay in a trade because your account has enough money, but because you understand the risks or the current market and have a plan in which to not only survive but profit.
Why Indicators Don't Tell The Whole Story..
Monday, 15. May 2006
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