Petroleum Review regularly updates its listing of megaprojects, i.e., large projects, generally over 75,000 bpd, of oil production capacity. This can be used to quantify whether enough projects are being developed to meet projected demand. Their latest update identifies 16.65 mbd of new capacity due to onstream by 2010. If the author is right, oil peak occurred in 2004. This in turn implies that prices will remain high and will increase even more in the future until some combination of the following takes place: significant conservation, alternate liquid fuels (primarily ethanol and biodiesel) become more readily available and alternate vehicle propulsion means becomes viable (plug-ins, all electrics, and fuel cells) .
Oil Production Shortage Likely Sooner Than Expected
Sunday, 30. October 2005
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